Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors : an application to German GDP /
Kuzin, Vladimir
Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors : an application to German GDP / Vladimir Kuzin, Massimiliano Marcellino, Christian Schumacher. - Frankfurt am Main : Deutsche Bundesbank, 2009 - 45 p. - Discussion paper. Series 1: economic studies ; no. 03/2009 . - Discussion paper (Deutsche Bundesbank). Series 1: economic studies no. 03/2009 .
Bibliografía: p. 26-29.
This paper investigates how multinational firms choose their capital structure in response to political risk. We focus on two choice variables, the leverage and the ownership structure of the foreign affiliate, and we distinguish different types of political risk, like expropriation, corruption and confiscatory taxation, and In our theoretical analysis we find that as political risk increases the ownership share always decreases whereas leverage can both increase or decrease, depending on the type of political risk. Using the Microdatabase Direct Investment of the Deutsche Bundesbank, we find supportive evidence for these different effects.
9783865584878
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO
TECNICAS DE PREDICCION
INCERTIDUMBRE
PREVISIONES ECONOMICAS
ALEMANIA
PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS PREDICCIONES ECONOMICAS
338.881338.544
Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors : an application to German GDP / Vladimir Kuzin, Massimiliano Marcellino, Christian Schumacher. - Frankfurt am Main : Deutsche Bundesbank, 2009 - 45 p. - Discussion paper. Series 1: economic studies ; no. 03/2009 . - Discussion paper (Deutsche Bundesbank). Series 1: economic studies no. 03/2009 .
Bibliografía: p. 26-29.
This paper investigates how multinational firms choose their capital structure in response to political risk. We focus on two choice variables, the leverage and the ownership structure of the foreign affiliate, and we distinguish different types of political risk, like expropriation, corruption and confiscatory taxation, and In our theoretical analysis we find that as political risk increases the ownership share always decreases whereas leverage can both increase or decrease, depending on the type of political risk. Using the Microdatabase Direct Investment of the Deutsche Bundesbank, we find supportive evidence for these different effects.
9783865584878
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO
TECNICAS DE PREDICCION
INCERTIDUMBRE
PREVISIONES ECONOMICAS
ALEMANIA
PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS PREDICCIONES ECONOMICAS
338.881338.544